Archive for March, 2012
Part 1: Is QE 3 Coming?
Part 2: Money Printing Leading to Inflation
Part 3: Warm Winter Boosting Job Numbers
By Dan Dorfman
The Magnificent Seven, a 1960 film about a group of American gunfighters hired to protect a small Mexican village from a gang of marauding bandits, is one of those memorable Western flicks.
Its success spawned a number of copy-cat films and now there’s a Wall Street version. In brief, it’s seven lagging quality stocks, all rated “buys” by veteran investment advisor Richard Moroney, the savvy research chief of Virginia-based Dow Theory Forecasts, one of the country’s more respected investment newsletters with a better than average stock-picking record…Read More
To summarize my recent New York City trip, almost all of the hedge fund types I visited with in New York are both long stocks for the short term and really scared for the long term. Why? They are long stocks mostly because buybacks have been fueling gains and now stock prices have climbed to less than 10% below the all time highs… Read More
The stock market is up over 11% so far this year benefiting from the Fed printing press, this time called Operation Twist. We at TrimTabs have been bullish for most of this year and likely will remain bullish for perhaps few weeks longer, mostly like turning bearish well before Operation Twist ends this June…Read More
By Dan Dorfman
You hear it again and again from one market skeptic after another: stocks, off to a blistering start in 2012 and up more than 100% over the past three years, are overbought and it’s time to take some chips off the table.
San Francisco money manager Gary Wollin, an absolute whiz at calling the ups and downs in stock prices over the past five years, vehemently disagrees, insisting “it’s the wrong time to be timid because the best is yet to be.” Read More
“Where are we headed as a global economy?” is a question most of us worry about. My best guess is that over time – in years not months – governments will wither away and the underlying global economy will grow and prosper. How I get there starts with where we are right now. And right now, there are enormous headwinds facing us. The headwinds all have a common theme however. Read More
The global media continues to unblinkingly report US government statistics that jobs and wages are in recovery. However, maybe reality is beginning to sink in. The Wall Street Journal reporter Jon Hilsenrath, the unofficial Federal Reserve mouthpiece, this past Monday wondered in print: “Something about the US economy is not adding up….How can an economy that is growing so slowly produce such big declines in unemployment.” Read More
As soon as the Fed stops flooding the markets with liquidity, or when investors recognize that the emperor is naked, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is poised to plunge to about 6,000 from 13,000 today. When the drop occurs I have no idea, but unless incomes again start growing at more than 5% a year and since a 5%+ growth rate is unlikely anytime soon, stocks will plunge when the Feds fix stops. Why Dow 6,000 for a bottom estimate? Historically stock prices sold at a 10 PE when income growth was 3% or less and with the Dow at 13,000 the PE is 23 today using Robert Shillers 10 year earnings PE… Read More