Companies and Insiders Are Big Sellers, Signaling Pessimistic Outlook
Sausalito, CA, Sept. 28 — TrimTabs Investment Research CEO Charles Biderman says the Fed’s latest easing seems to have run out of steam.
“Back on Monday, September 17 when the S&P 500 closed at 1461, which was 15% higher than the June 4 low of 1278, I asked if a 20% pop in stock prices was the most we could expect from the Fed easing. It now looks as if I was right about the limitations of the Fed easing, and only a little too optimistic about how far it would boost the markets.” Read More
Is the Bernanke Put dead or at least dying? I think so. Over the past seven trading days, the market value of all stocks is down half a trillion dollars, meaning that a quarter of the $2 trillion gain from the current easing has been given back. Read More
Back on Monday, September 17 when the S&P 500 closed at 1461, which was 15% higher then the June 4 low of 1278, I asked if a 20% pop in stock prices was the most we could expect from the Fed easing announced the prior Thursday, September 14. It now looks as if I was right about the limitations of the Fed easing, and only a little too optimistic about its effect on the market. Excuse me for a second while I pat myself on the back. Read More
It looks like wage and salary growth is accelerating. Not only that, it looks like growth has been accelerating since June. How do we know that? We track daily income tax withholdings from all wage earners whose salaries are subject to withholdings. Growth in income tax withholdings is up 2% year-over-year since June. Read More
Today’s New York Times reported, “The Chicago Teachers’ Pension Fund has about $10 billion in assets, but is paying out more than $1 billion in benefits a year, much more than it has been taking in. That has forced it to sell investments, worth hundreds of millions of dollars a year, to pay retired teachers. Experts say the fund could collapse within a few years unless something is done.” Read More
Our good buddy Jim Bianco has a poll asking institutional types: Three years from today, what will be your opinion of the ECB’s unlimited bond buying and the Fed’s open ended purchases? No surprise to me, 77% are saying that the easings will be a complete failure that actually hurts the economies. Only 10% believe that it will be a modest success. Even worse 4% say they will be a big success. The rest say they are not sure. Read More
The US stock market is now up about 16% since early June when the Fed Wire, also known as Wall Street Journal Reporter John Hilsenrath, pre announced the fourth Fed easing. In order to answer the question how much more in higher stock prices can we expect from the current Fed easing, let us look at what happened after prior Fed easing. The first Fed easing was announced March 2009, and stocks soared 50% through April 2010 before correcting 20%. To be clear, by stocks I mean the S&P 500. Then in August 2010, when the second Fed easing was preannounced stocks jumped 40% up until April 2011 before another 20% correction. Then in September 2011 after the third easing was announced stocked popped 30% peaking in April of this year, but dropped only 11% before fourth easing was preannounced in June. Read More
The TrimTabs Money Blog is pleased to announce the launch of Biderman’s Market Picks, a weekly video newsletter by Charles Biderman. This newsletter is designed to help you maximize long term investment gains while minimizing short term risks.
Each weekly issue of Biderman’s Markets Picks has three parts. The first part covers what Charles is thinking about the stock market. The second part presents Charles’ views on the economy. The third part shows how Charles is investing a $100,000 model portfolio to try to profit from the information in the first two parts.
The financial children had a temper tantrum. They pounded on the table yelling, “WE ARE NOT GOING TO EAT OUR VEGETABLES – DESSERT FIRST.”
So what does any permissive parent do when spoiled children have a temper tantrum. Daddy Bernanke says, “OK, children, just stop crying, and Daddy will give you dessert”. That’s exactly what happened last week. Daddy Bernanke’s dessert was a doozy, an open ended quantitative easing program we are calling “QE to Infinity and Beyond.” All right, thatís enough of the tongue and cheek. Read More