Biderman’s Market Picks 12/3/2012

Dec
03
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Biderman’s Market Picks model portfolio again dropped a bit less than 0.5% last week for the second week in a row. Meanwhile the S&P 500 rose 0.6%. In other words, the stock market did not do much while investors wait and see what the nitwits in Washington end up doing.
 
The global stock markets used to be a barometer of the global economy. As the global economy rose, so did the markets and as economies dropped the market followed. Then starting in 2009 stock prices became co dependent upon central bank activity. Now the global stock market is co dependent upon government activity.
 
Will those who run the governments here in the US, in Euro land and Japan actually have the right stuff and stop the runaway train heading off the fiscal cliff? Or much more likely, will the can be kicked down the road, meaning nothings gets solved anytime soon.
 
The bottom line is that there is no way the US, European and Japanese economies can grow fast enough any time soon to meet current expenditures and future entitlements. What is really needed is the realization that governments are not our friends who are helping, but rather parasites committed to the death of host – us – by their actions.
 
Over the last few weeks I talked about making some changes to model portfolio. But given that the markets future direction over the near term has very little to do with anything other then what Obama and the Republican leadership decides, I will not be making any major changes for now.
 
Meanwhile, being long gold and inflation protected securities, long some of the fastest growing tech stocks and short various risky market sectors has been protecting the Biderman’s Market Picks model portfolio from going down despite the market rising since BMP began at the start of June.

Charles Biderman
President & CEO, TrimTabs Investment Research
Portfolio Manager, TrimTabs Float Shrink ETF (TTFS)


Disclosure of Potential Conflicts of Interest & Trading Rules.
Biderman’s Market Picks (“BMP”) is a newsletter offered by TrimTabs Investment Research (“TTIR”). TTIR is not an investment adviser. Charles Biderman is the CEO of TTIR and the sole source of trading ideas and portfolio holdings of BMP. He offers his general market opinions as well as some of his own investment ideas and information on his actual personal investments. Mr. Biderman does not intend to, and has no obligation, to disclose his entire portfolio in BMP, or the performance of his portfolio.This arrangement may result in several potential conflicts of interest.TTIR also provides investment research to institutional investors on supply and demand for shares of stock, and data on money flows as well as economic trends. Some of the information in BMP will be available to other TTIR customers before BMP is published each week.

Mr. Biderman is also the CEO and portfolio manager of TrimTabs Asset Management (“TTAM”), a registered investment adviser and the sub-adviser to the TrimTabs Float Shrink ETF (“TTFS”). TTIR and TTAM are therefore under common control, and they share certain employees, but TTAM does not use TTIR data and research.

As the portfolio manager of TTFS Mr. Biderman personally makes portfolio decisions for the 100 portfolio holdings of TTFS, based upon a customized TTAM formula of float reduction, free cash flow generation, and leverage reduction, rather than fundamental analysis of a company’s shares. To mitigate any conflicts of interests, BMP will not include any stocks included in the TTFS portfolio. However, this means that users of BMP will not have the benefit of Mr. Biderman’s views on companies that are included in the TTFS portfolio.

While BMP may include suggestions for investment in specific securities, including TTFS, Mr. Charles Biderman may trade in any position held by the model portfolio in his personal and family accounts at any time. He may make recommendations for the model portfolio after or before purchasing or and selling the same positions from his personal and family accounts. Charles Biderman’s personal accounts differ in size and composition from the model portfolio.

The model portfolio will consist of ETFs, both leveraged and unleveraged, and liquid stocks.

The model portfolio assumes a starting date of May 29, 2012, of $100,000 in cash invested in securities at that day’s closing price. All future transactions are assumed to occur at the closing price. The model does not include deductions for advisory, brokerage, custody or other fees and expenses which typically apply to an actual portfolio. Such fees and expenses will reduce returns, and they will have a compounded negative effect on a portfolio’s performance over time. The performance of the model will be affected by market and economic events in addition to the investment and trading decisions of Charles Biderman. The model’s performance is not indicative of future results.

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