Rebuilding after Hurricane Sandy Likely Gives Economy Temporary Boost
Sausalito, CA — December 6, 2012 — TrimTabs Investment Research estimates that the U.S. economy added 202,000 jobs in November, up 44% from 140,000 in October.
TrimTabs’ employment estimates are based on an analysis of daily income tax deposits to the U.S. Treasury from all salaried U.S. employees. They are historically more accurate than the initial estimates from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
“Employment growth last month was stronger than we had expected at the start of the month,” said David Santschi, Executive Vice President of TrimTabs. “Rebuilding from Hurricane Sandy may be providing a temporary boost to the economy. Not only are some people working overtime and being paid higher wages for emergency projects, but others are being hired for new jobs as part of the rebuilding.”
In a research note to clients, TrimTabs reported that wage and salary growth accelerated to 5.5% year-over-year in November from 3.3% year-over-year in October. Adjusting for the government’s data on consumer price inflation, real wages and salaries rose 3.3% year-over-year in November, up from 1.1% year-over-year in October.
“A small part of the acceleration may have occurred because companies brought forward bonus payments ahead of expected tax changes next year,” said Santschi. “But the pickup in wage and salary growth was much bigger than what can be explained by bonus shifting. Most of it had to have come from new jobs.”
TrimTabs expects the BLS employment growth estimate for November to be lower than its estimate. The BLS survey period ended in the week containing November 12, while much of the acceleration in wage and salary growth occurred later in the month.
“We’re not in the business of predicting the initial figures the BLS reports,” said Santschi. “What we’re trying to provide is an accurate estimate of employment growth for the entire month based on real-time information.”
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