There’s been a lot of talk about the Federal Reserve rigging the stock market. If you’ve been wondering, as I have, how it is being done, here’s some terrific insight from our own David Santschi. David wrote in this week’s TrimTabs Weekly Liquidity Review, “The Fed is exchanging about $4 billion in newly created money every business day for various types of bonds. All else being equal, the Fed’s bond buying puts more money in investors’ hands to buy other assets, including stocks.” Read More
We estimate based on real-time income tax withholdings that the U.S. economy added 135,000 to 155,000 jobs in January, down slightly from 145,000 to 165,000 jobs in December.
For the second consecutive month, we are citing a range rather than a single figure because the impact of year-end bonuses makes it much tougher than usual to estimate employment change. Many employers shifted bonuses that normally would be paid in January and February into December due to tax increases that took effect on January 1. According to our favorite official Washington economist, some of the withholdings on bonuses paid out by December 31 were transmitted to the Treasury as late as the middle of January, so year-over-year comparisons in January are as skewed as they were in December. We adjusted the raw withholdings data to account for a significant degree of bonus shifting. Read More
I love Rick Santelli and the opportunity I had to be with him on CNBC Monday. However, during the four-minute segment, I didn’t have the opportunity to say that it probably is too early to turn bearish on the stock market. Read More
The Obama administration is the epitome of arrogance gone wrong. Yes, over the past two hundred years the US economy has been the most successful ever in the history of the world. Therefore, since the Obama Administration believes that our past results guarantee a great future. So he and his supporters are out there shilling that worrying about deficits is dumb. Just give the Obama administration all the spending authority it wants and not only will the poor and downtrodden rise up, but the overall economy will soar as it always has. And all will be good. Read More
The Federal Reserve has now admitted that five years ago, just days before the start of the financial meltdown, Mr. Bernanke and others at the Fed did not have a clue as to the impending financial disaster. Now contrast that with the results of an astonishing poll by a Chartered Financial Analyst Institute publication that 59% of investors now believe that because of what’s happened during the last five years: central banks and governments will be there to bail out troubled creditors. Read More
The TrimTabs Money Blog is pleased to announce the current issue of Biderman’s Market Picks, a weekly video newsletter by Charles Biderman. This newsletter is designed to help you maximize long term investment gains while minimizing short term risks. Each weekly issue of Biderman’s Markets Picks covers how Charles is investing a $100,000 model portfolio.
As we start the second half of January, this is a particularly good time to check out what real time data on flows and income has been telling us about the first half of this month. What has caught the attention of the media and markets is that a huge amount of money has gone into stocks since the beginning of the new year. TrimTabs Investment Research says that an amazing $39 billion has been invested in US and Global equity mutual as well exchange traded funds during the first ten trading days of January.
Jim Bianco talks about Fed and Obama Administrations goals to keep stock prices levitated so they can keep spending what they want to spend. Also, what Jim and Charles likely and unlikely black swan events that will end the stock and bond market bull run.
Those of you out there who are sane type investors should be worried about the fundamental investment problem you face. And that is how do sane people invest in an insane financial world? Stocks and bonds are up now for four years solely because of central bank rigging. At the same time our leaders refuse to address the fundamental problem that the economies of the US, Europe and Japan will not grow fast enough anytime soon to generate enough taxes to pay current bills, let alone past due. Read More