U.S. Economy Adds 145,000-165,000 Jobs in December

Jan
02

Bonus Shifting Makes Estimating Employment Growth More Difficult Than Usual

 

Sausalito, CA — January 2, 2013 — TrimTabs Investment Research estimates that the U.S. economy added 145,000-165,000 jobs in December, down from 202,000 jobs in November.

TrimTabs’ employment estimates are based on an analysis of daily income tax deposits to the U.S. Treasury from all salaried U.S. employees.  They are historically more accurate than the initial estimates from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

“We’re citing a range rather than a single figure for December because the impact of year-end bonuses on withholdings made it far more difficult than usual to make our employment estimate,” said David Santschi, Executive Vice President of TrimTabs.

In a research note to its clients, TrimTabs explained that many employers probably shifted bonuses that normally would be paid in January and February into December due to income tax hikes that took effect on January 1.  This bonus shifting skews the year-over-year comparisons TrimTabs uses to estimate employment growth.

TrimTabs reported that wage and salary growth accelerated to 8.2% year-over-year in December from 5.5% year-over-year in November.  Adjusting for the government’s data on consumer price inflation, real wages and salaries rose 6.4% year-over-year in December, up from 3.7% year-over-year in November.

“Most if not all of the acceleration in wage and salary growth last month was probably due to bonus shifting, and growth is likely to slow sharply this month,” said Santschi.  “None of the other key economic indicators we track point to a dramatic pickup in economic activity.”

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TrimTabs Investment Research is the only independent research service that publishes detailed daily coverage of U.S. stock market liquidity—including mutual fund flows and exchange-traded fund flows—as well as weekly withheld income and employment tax collections.  Founded by Charles Biderman, TrimTabs has provided institutional investors with trading strategies since 1990.  For more information, please visit www.TrimTabs.com.

Contact Information:

Richard Stern

Media Relations – New York

Stern & Company

+1 212-888-0044

richstern@sternco.com


Alison Simard

Media Relations – Los Angeles

Stern & Company

+1 323-650-7117

arsimard@sternco.com

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Charles BidermanCharles Biderman is the Chairman of TrimTabs Investment Research and Portfolio Manager of the TrimTabs Float Shrink ETF (TTFS)

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Mr. Charles Biderman is an associated person of Trim Tabs Asset Management, LLC, an SEC-registered investment adviser. All opinions expressed by Mr. Biderman on this website are solely those of Mr. Biderman and do not reflect the opinions of Trim Tabs Asset Management, LLC, Trim Tabs Investment Research, Inc., their affiliates (collectively, “Trim Tabs”), or any other associated persons of Trim Tabs. No part of Mr. Biderman’s compensation from Trim Tabs is related to opinions which he expresses on this website, elsewhere on the internet, or in any other medium.

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