TrimTabs Estimates U.S. Economy Adds 135,000-155,000 Jobs in January. Impact of Bonus Shifting Makes Our Estimate More Difficult to Make Than Usual for Second Consecutive Month.

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We estimate based on real-time income tax withholdings that the U.S. economy added 135,000 to 155,000 jobs in January, down slightly from 145,000 to 165,000 jobs in December.

 

For the second consecutive month, we are citing a range rather than a single figure because the impact of year-end bonuses makes it much tougher than usual to estimate employment change.  Many employers shifted bonuses that normally would be paid in January and February into December due to tax increases that took effect on January 1.  According to our favorite official Washington economist, some of the withholdings on bonuses paid out by December 31 were transmitted to the Treasury as late as the middle of January, so year-over-year comparisons in January are as skewed as they were in December.  We adjusted the raw withholdings data to account for a significant degree of bonus shifting.

 

In the past three months, we calculate that the economy added an average of 167,000 jobs per month.  This level of job growth will reduce the unemployment rate very gradually (the U-3 unemployment rate was unchanged at 7.8% in December, while the U-6 unemployment rate was unchanged at 14.4%).

 

Source: TrimTabs Investment Research and Bureau of Labor Statistics.

 

 

David Santschi

Chief Executive Officer

TrimTabs Investment Research

David.Santschi@TrimTabs.com <mailto:David.Santschi@TrimTabs.com>

+1 (415) 324 5873

 

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2 Responses to TrimTabs Estimates U.S. Economy Adds 135,000-155,000 Jobs in January. Impact of Bonus Shifting Makes Our Estimate More Difficult to Make Than Usual for Second Consecutive Month.

  1. Interpreting the January Jobs Data on February 1, 2013 at 3:13 am

    [...] Their idea is that this is the best current method for determining real job growth.  TrimTabs is forecasting a range of 135- 155K. There was a lot of year-end uncertainty about tax law from the fiscal cliff debate. [...]

  2. Joey Anchovey on February 1, 2013 at 3:39 pm

    The better the media plays up the market and the economy, the more poor mislead saps come back into the workplace and the higher the unemployment rates climb. We are now back at 7.9% and moving higher each month. Interesting how the unemployment rate dropped precipitously just before the election and now it keeps climbing upward. ya just gotta love propoganda.

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