Welcome to the new recession. TrimTabs tracking of real-time wages and salaries shows that the United States has entered into a recession this year. I had been predicting a slowdown after the big bump in December incomes due to the hike in taxes. It has taken a while for us to get a handle on income this year given all the changes in tax rates. But now enough time has passed that I can say I was right. The U.S. economy has slowed enough to enter into recession. Read More
This government sequestration BS is driving me nuts. I can no longer watch the TV talking heads describing how horrible sequestration will be. The talking heads are saying that if sequestration happens, airports will close, aircraft carriers won’t sail, national parks will close and hundreds of thousands of jobs will be lost. Read More
Here is an appetizer about the course. In Biderman’s Practices of Success and Abundance you will first discover what has stopped you from being as successful as you want to be. You will leave the course with the ability to be totally engaged and fully present to the important parts of your life, particularly when you do not want to play full out at the time. That practice over time leads to long term success and financial abundance. Read More
Here’s some good news, I think. After tax wages and salaries are still growing faster than I had been expecting. We are now seven weeks into the new year and wage and salary growth is not slowing by much. After tax income, year over year, grew by $200 billion over the past 90 days through February 12, 2013, two and a half times the $80 billion after tax income growth during the third quarter of last year. I had been expecting that year over year wage and salary growth – the best real time indicator of the US economy — would be slumping by now. My reasoning for a slump is based on higher employment taxes this year and the fact that some of the late 2012 income surge had to be 2013 income taken early. Read More
What I heard from the President’s State of the Union address was that he believes that the US government can successfully and efficiently and effectively solve our problems. What President Obama and his backers do not seem to understand is that big government is, in fact, the problem, not the solution. Read More
New York, NY — February 12, 2013 — BarclayHedge and TrimTabs Investment Research reported today that hedge fund investors redeemed a net $14.2 billion in 2012, reversing a $50.7 billion inflow to the industry in 2011. The results are based on data from 3,492 funds.
Hedge fund redemptions hit a 44-month high of $20.7 billion in December, according to the latest monthly TrimTabs/BarclayHedge Hedge Fund Flow Report, which noted that the industry earned 8.5% in 2012, far below the S&P 500’s 13.4% increase for the year. Read More
Driving down to Sausalito this morning I was listening to someone on the radio talk about how, in hindsight, he wished he’d acted differently.
That resonated with me, considering how I have misjudged the impact of central bank money creation on stock prices since 2009. That’s because I did not know, along with most everyone else, that Fed money creation had been invisibly increasing demand for equities. However, I did know enough to realize that there was something seriously out of whack in terms of normal supply and demand and the markets’ big gains. So while I did get the direction of the markets wrong, I knew enough to consistently hedge. And that has minimized capital losses for both me and Biderman’s Market Picks model portfolio. Read More
“God bless the United State of America” is how many politicians end their speeches. And indeed, God certainly must be blessing us, just look at the stock market. Right now, surprisingly, everything seems to be coming up roses, particularly those key metrics that determine what is really going on. Read More