Your work focuses on float shrink as a source of demand. But for every buyer of stock (the corporate) there must be a an equal and offsetting seller. The table in the link below indicates that the “seller” or source of supply for the corporate demand, was the household sector in the most recent years.
The final price is determined by the relative degree of enthusiasm for transacting at various price points between buys and sellers. Your work is very demand side focused, but one would assume at times the supply side may predominate. So do you do any work on the supply side? How easy is it to measure?
The Fed’s Z1, or quarterly flow of funds, says float shrink is due in essence to company buying and household selling.
While my good friend “Tyler” at ZeroHedge acknowledges that the household sector in the Z! is simply the catchall category, never the less there are less shares held by individuals.
My analysis shows that about 80% of the S&P 500 in held by stock market intermediaries — funds of various kinds.
We at TrimTabs can now track total supply of shares in aggregate and at the ticker level.
The only part of the demand arena not trackable is what the Fed calls the household sector.
Any other questions or comments are welcome.
With increasing tax payments and a decreasing deficit, global trade needs more Treasuries to lubricate trade. Thus the “taper” is necessary.
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