Biderman on Fox Business looking at the economy’s fundamentals

May
27


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2 Responses to Biderman on Fox Business looking at the economy’s fundamentals

  1. Chris on May 27, 2014 at 11:39 pm

    Charles – nicely done in the interview…great to hit the anectdotal story telling offered by your counterpart w/ actual research and data…

    BTW – today’s thought…
    since the GFC, net “foreign” treasury purchases seem to very closely correlate to the budget deficit minus the trade deficit (see below)…paradoxical as one would expect as the US creates more debt than trade deficit there should be fewer dollars to be recycled into US Treasury’s?…but for some reason “foreign” buyers since the “GFC” seem to buy up all the excess treasury’s at ever lower yields regardless…

    net Foreign T buy (yoy) = annual budget deficit minus trade deficit

    ’14 $300 B = B (est.)

    ’13 $219 B = B

    ’12 $619 B = B

    ’11 $733 B = B

    ’10 $631 B = B

    ’09 $672 B = B

    pre-”GFC”

    ’08 $1147 B = $243 B

    ’07 $279 B = $539 B

    ’06 $75 B = $504 B

    In the same period (’07-’13), Japan and China (combined) increased their Treasury holdings by net $1.4 T on a trade surplus w/ the US of $3 T+…Amazingly the banking nations (below) similarly had a $1.2 T increase in Treasury holdings w/ relatively no trade surplus w/ the US???

    GLOBAL BANKING CENTERS (treasury holdings)

    •————- Jan ’00—> ’07 ——> Mar ’14
    •“Carribean banking centers”
    •—————$35 B —> $68 B -—> $312 B
    •UK — ——-$50 B —> $100 B —> $176 B
    •Switzerland $18 B —> $34 B —-> $176 B
    •HK ———– $39 B —> $52 B —> $156 B
    •Singapore —$30 B —> $30 B —–> $91 B
    •Ireland ———$5 B -—> $19 B —> $113 B
    •Belgium ——$28 B ––> $13 B —> $381 B
    •Luxemburg —-$5 B ––> $60 B —> $145 B
    •TOTAL —– $210 B –> $376 B —> $1,550 T (410% increase from ’07)

    Any thoughts where all the excess dollars came from in these nations to create this “foreign” demand and why they chose Treasury’s as their asset of choice???

  2. Chris on May 28, 2014 at 9:05 am

    Corrected data from above…

    Yr. – Foreign (y o y) Treasury increase = net Budget deficit minus Trade deficit

    14. $250 B =========== = $-150 est.

    13. $219 B =========== = $-205

    12. $619 B ============= $-565

    11. $733 B ============== $-742

    10. $631 B ============== $-795

    09. $672 B ============= $-1029

    Pre- Crisis

    08. $1147 B ============= $243 B

    07. $279 B ============== $539 B

    06. $75 B ============== = $504 B
    Read more at http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2014/05/interview-with-james-rickards-author-of.html#2uHx7aRbPJcc3HDy.99

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Charles BidermanCharles Biderman is the Chairman of TrimTabs Investment Research and Portfolio Manager of the TrimTabs Float Shrink ETF (TTFS)

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