Production of crude oil has nearly stalled despite a near quadrupling in the price since ’01 and it seems likely the world has entered the Peak Oil phase and the governments nor central banks (try as they may) can paper this over. Without the growing supply of adequate cheap energy, there isn’t adequate GDP growth, and without the GDP growth, there is no way to outgrow, pay off, or service the huge debts incurred but by interest rate suppression. READ MORE
Given the Fed will complete it’s “taper” shortly…the topic of who has bought, who owns, and who will buy US Treasury debt seems important.
The 1st slide shows the four classes of US Treasury buyers. It shows who purchased what since ’00 cross referencing the blended interest rates on the Treasury curve. As yields have collapsed and the alternative markets (stocks, RE, corporate or junk bonds) have improved or offered more attractive returns…only the Fed and Foreigners have continued to accumulate Treasury’s. I included the Fed’s $667 Billion in Operation Twist long bond purchases (paid for from selling all their short paper) to show the power and magnitude of the Fed’s purchases since 2011…READ MORE
Once upon a time, there was a thing called a “free-market” and for a time nations strove toward this ideal. To wit, a free market economy was a market-based economy where prices for goods and services would be set freely by the forces of supply and demand and allowed to reach their point of equilibrium without intervention by government policy, and it typically entailed support for highly competitive markets and private ownership of productive enterprises. But power and belief shifted and faith now resides in governmental fiscal policy (spend more, tax less) and central banker interest rate policy (make money ever cheaper) to avoid the free markets down-cycles and extend its up-cycles infinitely. The central bank high priests have determined free markets are better replaced by command economies and further the priests’ purport they know appropriate levels of demand and supply…and absent the achievement of these levels, they will enforce their will even if the Fed’s programs are the likely cause that retards the Fed’s from achieving their stated goals! READ MORE
By any objective measure Reserve Currencies — particularly the US dollar — are dying. The question most analysts get when discussing the reality of the US and world economic/financial situations is, if things are so dire (***see dire links below ), why doesn’t it feel like it? If all the facts stated about $6 trillion annual (GAAP basis) US budget deficits or US government total debt and obligations in excess of $90 trillion are true, why does the system still “function”??? Social Security recipients receive checks, the military is still paid, the garbage gets picked up, and stores still have stocked shelves. Life seems hectic but generally “normal”. So, is there a problem at all and if so, when and how will it go from theoretical to reality?
There are many ways to look at the United States government debt, obligations, and assets. Liabilities include Treasury debt held by the public or more broadly total Treasury debt outstanding. There’s unfunded liabilities like Medicare and Social Security. And then the assets of all the real estate, all the equities, all the bonds, all the deposits…all at today’s valuations. But let’s cut straight to the bottom line and add it all up…$89.5 trillion in liabilities and $82 trillion in assets. There. It’s not a secret anymore…and although these are all government numbers, for some strange reason the government never adds them all together or explains them…but we will. READ MORE
Mr. Charles Biderman is an associated person of Trim Tabs Asset Management, LLC, an SEC-registered investment adviser. All opinions expressed by Mr. Biderman on this website are solely those of Mr. Biderman and do not reflect the opinions of Trim Tabs Asset Management, LLC, Trim Tabs Investment Research, Inc., their affiliates (collectively, “Trim Tabs”), or any other associated persons of Trim Tabs. No part of Mr. Biderman’s compensation from Trim Tabs is related to opinions which he expresses on this website, elsewhere on the internet, or in any other medium.
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