In 2010 the US stock market peaked at the end of April and then sold off until the Fed announced QE2 several months later. In 2011 the stock market peaked at the end of April and sold off until the Fed announced Operation Twist several months later. This will be the third year in a row that stocks have started selling off in May. I predict the drop will continue until the Fed announces the next version of stock market stimulus; probably in August at the Fed’s Yellowstone confab. Why stock prices did not peak at the end of this April was that in April 2010 and April 2011 there were decent inflows into US equity mutual funds and US ETFs. This April there were outflows not inflows from both US equity mutual and Exchange Traded Funds…Read More
Don’t wince. This is about $100 stocks. If you’re about to say forget it, that triple-digit priced stocks are too rich for your blood, don’t. Granted, every investor dreams of latching on to a get-rich-quick pipsqueak stock that can go through the roof. Correspondingly, hordes of investors, fearful of stocks at towering prices, will take a shots on the cheapies, theorizing that lower-priced equities have much more upside potential than higher priced ones. That may sound right, but it’s wrong. Just the opposite has been the case in recent decades, according to a new study undertaken by the Dow Theory Forecasts, one of the country’s leading investment newsletters…Read More
Last Fridays’s Bureau of Labor Statistics release said 115,000 new jobs were created in April. However, if you read the footnotes, what Friday’s report really says was that the BLS is 90% certain that April new jobs were between 15,000 and 215,000. Mind you, the BLS did not say 100% only 90% certain. That means it could be negative or wildly positive…Read More
This Friday the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release its guess as to how many jobs were created in April. The media nitwits will report whatever the number as if it were the gospel truth. Those who need the action will trade the number as if it means something.
It is sad to me that the BLS and everyone else but us ignores the fact that real time data is readily available on how many people are working and how much they are making. Where? Embedded in the withheld income and employment taxes sent to the US Treasury every day by all employers. The truth is that the initial BLS new jobs number is a joke even in the eyes of the BLS. How do I know that? I just reread some BLS footnotes for the first time in several years…Read More
Sausalito, CA – May 2, 2012. TrimTabs Investment Research estimates the U.S. economy added 116,000 jobs in April, down 23% from a revised 150,000 in March. In the past three months, TrimTabs says, employment growth has averaged 140,000, 34% less than the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) estimate of an average of 212,000 jobs per month. Meanwhile, the consensus view is that the BLS will report 170,000 new jobs on Friday.
TrimTabs’ employment estimates are based on an analysis of daily income tax deposits to the U.S. Treasury from all salaried U.S. employees. They are historically more accurate than initial estimates from the BLS.
TrimTabs says that although the economy has created an average of 134,000 new jobs a month for 19 months, that growth is not nearly strong enough to significantly reduce the unemployment rate. TrimTabs points out that the economy needs to create a minimum of 150,000 jobs per month to absorb all the new people entering the labor force. TrimTabs expects the unemployment rate to remain above 8%…Read More
Today is the last day of April 2012. The stock market peaked, topped out, the last day of April 2010 and then again the last day of April 2011. Then, in May 2010 and again in May 2011, the stock market started a sell-off that lasted several months. Will that happen again this year? I actually do think we are at the start of another stock market decline…Read More
The gold debate–up or down–rages on. One of the more interesting dimensions of this debate is the latest word from Dennis Gartman, regarded in some quarters as among the savviest newsletter writers around and a frequent guest on the leading TV business networks. However, he has often been accused of being a Romney-like flip-flopper when it comes to predicting the course of gold. No more! He told me the other day that “gold is now dead money for the rest of the year!” That comment, firm and unequivocal, comes on the heels of a sell signal he issued on the metal in early March.
Gartman, editor of the Virginia-based Gartman Letter, is sticking to his guns on his negative gold call even though the metal rallied a bit in recent days on word from the Federal Reserve that further monetary stimulus, an inflationary action, is by means off the table. Enhancing that possibility is the revelation in recent days that first-quarter GDP came in at a disappointing 2.5%– versus some expectations of a higher 2.7%, a clear sign to some market watchers that another round of quantitative easing (QE3) is simply a matter of time… Read More