As soon as the Fed stops flooding the markets with liquidity, or when investors recognize that the emperor is naked, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is poised to plunge to about 6,000 from 13,000 today. When the drop occurs I have no idea, but unless incomes again start growing at more than 5% a year and since a 5%+ growth rate is unlikely anytime soon, stocks will plunge when the Feds fix stops. Why Dow 6,000 for a bottom estimate? Historically stock prices sold at a 10 PE when income growth was 3% or less and with the Dow at 13,000 the PE is 23 today using Robert Shillers 10 year earnings PE… Read More
Don’t get suckered! There are times when gold can turn into fool’s gold. This could be one of those times. In other words, gold stands out as an exciting investment for the long run, but looms as a potential dog of an investment for the short run.
Those essentially are the cautionary suggestions from a couple of outspoken and generally buoyant long-time gold bulls. More specifically, they’re saying if you’re tempted to take a flier on the precious metal in the hopes of buying it on the cheap after its wicked $130-an-ounce decline over five days that sent it skidding to around $1,660, your timing could be for the birds… Read More
The stock markets are being rigged by the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank and what is more, just about everybody knows that. My CNBC buddy Bob Pisani said today that kicking the can down the road, a euphemism for the rigged economies both here and in Europe, is an effective policy tool because it has worked, so far… Read More
The Biderman Market Theory has two key distinctions and both of them are bullish for US stocks over the near term. The first distinction is that all markets have two types of participants, the house and the players, and the house always has an advantage over the players. In the stock market the house are the public companies. The house, as evidenced by the 3000 largest US public companies, in February for the first time since we started tracking monthly float six months ago shrank the number of shares outstanding at a 1.3% annual rate, compared with a 1.3% share growth rate in January and a 3% annual growth rate in the number of shares last October. Therefore, the house is bullish… Read More
Sol Erdman is the founder and president of the Center for Collaborative Democracy (CCD) and co-author of The Cure for Our Broken Political Process: How We Can Get Our Politicians to Resolve the Issues Tearing Our Country Apart (Potomac Books, 2008)… Read More
Sausalito, CA – March 7, 2012. Trimtabs Investment Research estimates the U.S. economy added 149,000 jobs in February, down from its January estimate of 181,000. TrimTabs’ employment estimates are based on an analysis of daily income tax deposits to the U.S. Treasury from all salaried U.S. employees. They are historically more accurate than initial estimates from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics… Read More
Here are a couple of wild scenarios making the rounds in energy circles that could be in store for the nation’s roughly 200 million drivers. One calls for a run up at the pump to $5, $6, $7 or maybe even $10 a gallon. The other one, much more palatable, would be a 50-cent-a gallon drop to around the $3.25 level from the current national average of $3.76… Read More
The US stock market is up all of 1% or so since early February. I had thought that by now the stock market would have been selling off. That has obviously not happened. While insider selling is indeed surging, however, in February new stock buybacks were the most since in any one month since last September. Since stock buybacks are the only new source of money for the stock market, a pop in buyback activity says to me that stocks prices could to go higher over the next few weeks… Read More
The words vary, but we get the same questionable message from a lot of economists: Inflation is virtually non-existent.
That’s also the view of Federal Reserve chief Ben Bernanke, who told a recent Congressional hearing that inflation was relatively low and would remain that way throughout 2012 and 2013, probably below the Fed’s 2% target.
But just maybe the economic fraternity should take his words with a grain of salt since the fact of life is that sharply rising prices are everywhere despite his repeated assertions that inflation is subdued… Read More
The Biderman Market Theory says that in all markets there is the house and then there are the players. I have talked a lot about the house in the stock market casino on many of these videos, particularly that the house, the public companies, have an advantage over the players. I rarely talk about the players and perhaps I should. The key question should be: What separates the few that are long term successful from the majority who regularly lose? Read More
Mr. Charles Biderman is an associated person of Trim Tabs Asset Management, LLC, an SEC-registered investment adviser. All opinions expressed by Mr. Biderman on this website are solely those of Mr. Biderman and do not reflect the opinions of Trim Tabs Asset Management, LLC, Trim Tabs Investment Research, Inc., their affiliates (collectively, “Trim Tabs”), or any other associated persons of Trim Tabs. No part of Mr. Biderman’s compensation from Trim Tabs is related to opinions which he expresses on this website, elsewhere on the internet, or in any other medium.
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