In the late 1500s, William Shakespeare brought us A Midsummer Night’s Dream. Now, more than 415 years later, Michael Larson, editor of the Florida-based Safe Money Report, one of the country’s more prominent bearish investment newsletters, offers us his own Wall Street version of that play. Call it, say, a midsummer market nightmare, or a resumption of last summer’s debacle, notably in July and August, when the Dow dived about 2,000 points on fears of a contagion of the European debt crisis and the June end of QE-2.
Alas, Larson sees another bummer of a summer, with the Dow tumbling over next the several months to the 12,000-12,200 range, largely triggered by a swelling global economic slowdown. Read More
Austerity is becoming a dirty word. Nobody wants austerity. Wikipedia says austerity is a policy of deficit-cutting, lower spending, and a reduction in the amount of benefits and public services provided. Really, I am shocked to learn that Europeans who have been getting something for nothing want to keep getting that something; particularly since Europes future under the combination of austerity and no growth policies is very, very bleak and dark. Read More
Hey, is there skullduggery afoot at the New York Stock Exchange, particularly in the trading of the shares of its parent, Euronext-NYSE, Inc (NYX)?
Signs sure suggest so, as evidenced, I’ve learned, by a second investigation that has been launched into such trading, this one by the Securities and Exchange Commission. It is one of a number of SEC investigations that I recently became aware of, thanks to a regulatory source. Read More
In 2012’s First Quarter, Hedge Funds Had $3.2 Billion in Outflows and Underperformed the S&P 500
Nearly Half of Hedge Fund Managers Expect S&P 500 in 2012 to Retreat Below 2011 Year-End Level
New York, NY—May 8, 2012—BarclayHedge and TrimTabs Investment Research reported today that the hedge fund industry added $2.3 billion (0.1% of assets) in March, down from a $6.8 billion inflow in February and only the fourth monthly inflow since July 2011. Based on data from 3,034 funds, the March TrimTabs/BarclayHedge Hedge Fund Flow Report estimated that industry assets stood at $1.8 trillion in March, up 2.2% from $1.7 trillion in February.
In 2010 the US stock market peaked at the end of April and then sold off until the Fed announced QE2 several months later. In 2011 the stock market peaked at the end of April and sold off until the Fed announced Operation Twist several months later. This will be the third year in a row that stocks have started selling off in May. I predict the drop will continue until the Fed announces the next version of stock market stimulus; probably in August at the Fed’s Yellowstone confab. Why stock prices did not peak at the end of this April was that in April 2010 and April 2011 there were decent inflows into US equity mutual funds and US ETFs. This April there were outflows not inflows from both US equity mutual and Exchange Traded Funds…Read More
Don’t wince. This is about $100 stocks. If you’re about to say forget it, that triple-digit priced stocks are too rich for your blood, don’t. Granted, every investor dreams of latching on to a get-rich-quick pipsqueak stock that can go through the roof. Correspondingly, hordes of investors, fearful of stocks at towering prices, will take a shots on the cheapies, theorizing that lower-priced equities have much more upside potential than higher priced ones. That may sound right, but it’s wrong. Just the opposite has been the case in recent decades, according to a new study undertaken by the Dow Theory Forecasts, one of the country’s leading investment newsletters…Read More
Last Fridays’s Bureau of Labor Statistics release said 115,000 new jobs were created in April. However, if you read the footnotes, what Friday’s report really says was that the BLS is 90% certain that April new jobs were between 15,000 and 215,000. Mind you, the BLS did not say 100% only 90% certain. That means it could be negative or wildly positive…Read More