Returning from two weeks traveling around Costa Rica, I am currently at the Inside ETF Conference and what has most impressed me so far is the seeming universal bullishness of most of the speakers and attendees. None of that should be surprising since our brilliant associate David Santschi in a video last week reported that institutions and individuals are as bullish currently as they have been in quite some time… Read More
The Congressional Budget Office’s (CBO) Budget and Economic Outlook starts out with this sobering statement. “The United States is facing profound budgetary and economic challenges. The $1.3 trillion budget deficit for 2011 is the third largest shortfall in the past 65 years.” In stark language the CBO paints a grim financial picture confronting policy makers heading into an election year… Read More
Last week, I discussed how retail investors have been putting most of their money under the mattress. In 2011, a whopping $932 billion flowed into checking and savings accounts, eight times higher the $117 billion that flowed into stock and bond mutual funds and exchange-traded funds… Read More
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As economic woes continue, private betting in many Wall Street quarters says that Romney wins Nomination and Presidency. But big UK bookmaker says odds for presidency still favor Obama.
Mitt-mania is sweeping political circles, what with Mitt Romney winning both Iowa and New Hampshire and now favored to take South Carolina and Florida, as well. Similarly, some Wall Streeters privately are betting big bucks among themselves that the former Massachusetts governor will win the nomination and the White House. That’s also a bet, it appears, on continuing economic and market deterioration as the catalyst to explode chances of an Obama second term… Read More
What Trends Do ETFs Exhibit During Holiday Months? TrimTabs Demand Index at 76.24
The TrimTabs Demand Index (TTDI), which uses 21 flow and sentiment regressions to time U.S. equities, closed at 76.24 on December 20 – comfortably north of the neutrality line of 50.0. The TTDI model portfolio is 2 times bullish (200% long) because the TTDI is greater than 75.0. Note that the TTDI was 200% leveraged long on November 25, right before the market surged, and currently is signaling a strong finish to the year… Read More
Investment Flows: December has seen no break in the bearish grip on global markets. Foreign equity funds have posted outflows for the fifth week in a row, and ETF outflows for the first two weeks of December are already matching the total for all of November.
Supply and Demand: New equity issuance in Asia, Latin America, and Western Europe totals $14 billion in December, down from $18.8 billion in November.
Sausalito, CA – January 13, 2012 – TrimTabs Investment Research said today that in the first 11 months of 2011, investors poured eight times more money into checking and savings accounts as they did into stock and bond mutual funds and exchange-traded funds. “The Fed is doing almost everything in its power to entice investors to speculate in overpriced asset markets,” said TrimTabs Executive Vice President David Santschi. “But retail investors aren’t taking the bait.” Read More
This past week I was asked several questions about the BLS’ December unemployment rate and the BLS’ employment estimate. The questions clearly indicated that the questioners did not know the two estimates come from different BLS surveys – the unemployment rate from the Household Survey and the employment number from the Establishment Survey… Read More