This Friday the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release its guess as to how many jobs were created in April. The media nitwits will report whatever the number as if it were the gospel truth. Those who need the action will trade the number as if it means something.
It is sad to me that the BLS and everyone else but us ignores the fact that real time data is readily available on how many people are working and how much they are making. Where? Embedded in the withheld income and employment taxes sent to the US Treasury every day by all employers. The truth is that the initial BLS new jobs number is a joke even in the eyes of the BLS. How do I know that? I just reread some BLS footnotes for the first time in several years…Read More
Sausalito, CA – May 2, 2012. TrimTabs Investment Research estimates the U.S. economy added 116,000 jobs in April, down 23% from a revised 150,000 in March. In the past three months, TrimTabs says, employment growth has averaged 140,000, 34% less than the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) estimate of an average of 212,000 jobs per month. Meanwhile, the consensus view is that the BLS will report 170,000 new jobs on Friday.
TrimTabs’ employment estimates are based on an analysis of daily income tax deposits to the U.S. Treasury from all salaried U.S. employees. They are historically more accurate than initial estimates from the BLS.
TrimTabs says that although the economy has created an average of 134,000 new jobs a month for 19 months, that growth is not nearly strong enough to significantly reduce the unemployment rate. TrimTabs points out that the economy needs to create a minimum of 150,000 jobs per month to absorb all the new people entering the labor force. TrimTabs expects the unemployment rate to remain above 8%…Read More
Today is the last day of April 2012. The stock market peaked, topped out, the last day of April 2010 and then again the last day of April 2011. Then, in May 2010 and again in May 2011, the stock market started a sell-off that lasted several months. Will that happen again this year? I actually do think we are at the start of another stock market decline…Read More
The gold debate–up or down–rages on. One of the more interesting dimensions of this debate is the latest word from Dennis Gartman, regarded in some quarters as among the savviest newsletter writers around and a frequent guest on the leading TV business networks. However, he has often been accused of being a Romney-like flip-flopper when it comes to predicting the course of gold. No more! He told me the other day that “gold is now dead money for the rest of the year!” That comment, firm and unequivocal, comes on the heels of a sell signal he issued on the metal in early March.
Gartman, editor of the Virginia-based Gartman Letter, is sticking to his guns on his negative gold call even though the metal rallied a bit in recent days on word from the Federal Reserve that further monetary stimulus, an inflationary action, is by means off the table. Enhancing that possibility is the revelation in recent days that first-quarter GDP came in at a disappointing 2.5%– versus some expectations of a higher 2.7%, a clear sign to some market watchers that another round of quantitative easing (QE3) is simply a matter of time… Read More
Ugh! With all the market risks and uncertainties out there, yet another new danger is lurking that’s particularly topical at this juncture. That’s the potential selling pressure associated with that old Wall Street adage, “Sell in May and go away.”
In other words, so goes the theory, you sell your equity holdings early next month to avoid the market’s sloppy, lackluster period (say from early May through the end of October) and then you jump back into stocks in early November to capitalize on the timing of their more robust stretch (from roughly early November through the end of April). Read More
“Charles Biderman, president and CEO of investment research firm TrimTabs, started his career as a stock margin clerk at Francis I. Dupont And Co.
“It was the only job I could get with a BA from Brooklyn College,” he says. “The only way to get into the front office was to get an MBA,” so, naturally, he went to Harvard Business School.
Following his graduation from Harvard Business School, he started working with short sellers and shorting the real estate market in the mid ‘70s. In 1975, he bought 1,000 apartment units, two office buildings and six shopping centers from bankrupt REITs. Unfortunately, in 1987, he got caught in another real estate crash and started TrimTabs in 1990, recommending investors short banks that were stuck with a lot of bad real estate.” Read More
Europe is in big trouble, and the trouble is getting worse, much worse listening to all the news lately. Why it is getting worse is that it is now apparent that neither the left nor the right has a workable solution to the two major Europeans issues, overspending and declining economic activity. By the left, I mean the existing political structure of government dominated economies. By the right, I mean a German style austerity program…Read More