Americans participating in a recent Gallup poll showed the highest level of confidence in an economic recovery in a year. Sounds great, but you can’t ignore the nearly 13 million unemployed, the 46 million people on food stamps and the roughly 29% of the country’s homeowners whose mortgages are under water. They would find it hard to subscribe to the poll’s sunny conclusion. On the other hand, there’s no getting away from a bevy of seemingly increasingly favorable economic data, which, more recently, includes falling weekly jobless claims, four consecutive monthly gains in the leading economic indicators, somewhat perkier retail sales and a pickup in housing starts and business permits. Pounding home this cheerful view is the media’s growing drumbeat of increased economic vigor…Read More
If someone bigger and stronger than you repeatedly punches you in the face, bloodies your nose and keeps knocking you to the ground, maybe it’s best to stop fighting, write it off as a losing battle, and go away to live and fight another day.
This same, sound strategy might well apply to the bitter presidential race in which two lagging White House candidates, Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul, have had their political noses repeatedly bloodied. Yet, each is vowing to stay in the race until the very end… Read More
At last night’s Golden State Warrior game, my buddy remarked that to him this stock market looks exactly like the elevator shaft market as in October 1987 the stock market dropped 25% in two days. The more I think about that image of an elevator shaft market, the more worried I become… Read More
We have discovered a likely source of error in our employment model that would help explain some of the big differences between our jobs estimates based on withholding taxes and the jobs estimate from the BLS and ADP. Recall that the BLS reported that the U.S. economy created a surprising 243,000 jobs in January. In addition, ADP reported 170,000 new jobs. Both of these estimates are far higher than our January jobs estimate of only 45,000… Read More
President Obama announced yesterday that he wants to spend $3.8 trillion fiscal 2013 ending September, up from $3.6 trillion this past fiscal year. That is a 5.5% increase in spending over two years. At the same time government revenues, almost all income tax collections, are about $2.4 trillion today and has been growing by no more than $100 billion yearly… Read More
It’s a conspicuous occurrence on Wall Street, almost as commonplace as the air we breathe. Last year, they fizzled. So far this year, they’ve sizzled. And even more sizzle could lie ahead.
That’s a reference to smaller companies, as measured by the Russell 2000, and they are far outpacing their larger brethren after falling 5.5% in 2011. The numbers detail their robust recovery. As of this writing, the Russell 2000, is off and running this year, racking up a nifty 9.7% gain in less than two months, more than double the 4.7% advance in the Dow and well above the 6.7% increase in the S&P 500… Read More
I remain cautiously bearish on US stocks despite the market being up around 2% since we first turned negative at the end of January. The Biderman Market Theory says that the house, the public companies, have an advantage in the stock market casino over all the players. (Yes, I am guilty of shameless self promotion.) Meanwhile, what the house in the stock market casino has been doing has been buying since all the players we know of, US equity mutual funds, pension and hedge funds, all have been big sellers ever since the market bottomed early October… Read More
I have been saying for many years now that the stock market is like a casino and that the house has an advantage over the players. I am surprised that after a modest amount of looking that I could not find anyone else saying that the house has an advantage in all markets… Read More
For some, this economy is lots better. We keep hearing that an economic recovery is underway. Yet for those who don’t have lots of money in the stock market, there’s been no economic recovery. How many of you know that the market value of all US listed stocks right now is $18.7 trillion. Not only is that almost a double from the March 2009 low, but the gain itself is just over $9 trillion. Let me repeat, the value of all US stocks is up by over $9 trillion in three years. Wow… Read More
How crazy is it that many investment professionals as well as almost all the media treat Europe and the US financial mess like a problem that sooner or later will be resolved in a good way? To think that, in my opinion, Wall Street pros have to be blind. To me, their myopia is due to the fact that since 1983, there has never been a two year downturn in stocks and therefore all problems sooner or later get worked out… Read More
Mr. Charles Biderman is an associated person of Trim Tabs Asset Management, LLC, an SEC-registered investment adviser. All opinions expressed by Mr. Biderman on this website are solely those of Mr. Biderman and do not reflect the opinions of Trim Tabs Asset Management, LLC, Trim Tabs Investment Research, Inc., their affiliates (collectively, “Trim Tabs”), or any other associated persons of Trim Tabs. No part of Mr. Biderman’s compensation from Trim Tabs is related to opinions which he expresses on this website, elsewhere on the internet, or in any other medium.
You should not treat any opinion expressed by Mr. Biderman as a recommendation to make an investment in any company discussed or cited in any of his postings. Mr. Biderman’s opinions are based upon information he considers credible, but which does not constitute research by Trim Tabs. Neither Mr. Biderman nor Trim Tabs warrants the completeness or accuracy of the information upon which Mr. Biderman’s opinions are based.