Social media I say will create a revolution in how we govern ourselves and eventually will start the next bull market, but not for at least three to five years. I define social media as the ability for everybody on this planet to be in instant communication with everyone else. Several of you have commented that social media is as big a breakthrough as was the personal computer in 1982. In my opinion social media is, but not until the current representative govt format, actually falls apart and unfortunately that unlikely to happen over the next few years…Read More
To summarize my recent New York City trip, almost all of the hedge fund types I visited with in New York are both long stocks for the short term and really scared for the long term. Why? They are long stocks mostly because buybacks have been fueling gains and now stock prices have climbed to less than 10% below the all time highs… Read More
The stock market is up over 11% so far this year benefiting from the Fed printing press, this time called Operation Twist. We at TrimTabs have been bullish for most of this year and likely will remain bullish for perhaps few weeks longer, mostly like turning bearish well before Operation Twist ends this June…Read More
You hear it again and again from one market skeptic after another: stocks, off to a blistering start in 2012 and up more than 100% over the past three years, are overbought and it’s time to take some chips off the table.
San Francisco money manager Gary Wollin, an absolute whiz at calling the ups and downs in stock prices over the past five years, vehemently disagrees, insisting “it’s the wrong time to be timid because the best is yet to be.” Read More
“Where are we headed as a global economy?” is a question most of us worry about. My best guess is that over time – in years not months – governments will wither away and the underlying global economy will grow and prosper. How I get there starts with where we are right now. And right now, there are enormous headwinds facing us. The headwinds all have a common theme however. Read More
The global media continues to unblinkingly report US government statistics that jobs and wages are in recovery. However, maybe reality is beginning to sink in. The Wall Street Journal reporter Jon Hilsenrath, the unofficial Federal Reserve mouthpiece, this past Monday wondered in print: “Something about the US economy is not adding up….How can an economy that is growing so slowly produce such big declines in unemployment.” Read More
As soon as the Fed stops flooding the markets with liquidity, or when investors recognize that the emperor is naked, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is poised to plunge to about 6,000 from 13,000 today. When the drop occurs I have no idea, but unless incomes again start growing at more than 5% a year and since a 5%+ growth rate is unlikely anytime soon, stocks will plunge when the Feds fix stops. Why Dow 6,000 for a bottom estimate? Historically stock prices sold at a 10 PE when income growth was 3% or less and with the Dow at 13,000 the PE is 23 today using Robert Shillers 10 year earnings PE… Read More
Don’t get suckered! There are times when gold can turn into fool’s gold. This could be one of those times. In other words, gold stands out as an exciting investment for the long run, but looms as a potential dog of an investment for the short run.
Those essentially are the cautionary suggestions from a couple of outspoken and generally buoyant long-time gold bulls. More specifically, they’re saying if you’re tempted to take a flier on the precious metal in the hopes of buying it on the cheap after its wicked $130-an-ounce decline over five days that sent it skidding to around $1,660, your timing could be for the birds… Read More