Biderman’s Daily Edge 2/27/2012: Real Data Does Not Corroborate Pollyanna

Feb
27

Pollyanna is alive and well on Wall Street. What I mean by that is many on Wall Street want to believe that a stock market up by more than $9 trillion, or 100% from the March 2009 low, has to mean that the US economy is in a healthy long term recovery. Unfortunately, the Pollyannas are wrong. Their evidence of an improved labor market, higher corporate earnings and the return of the housing market are all based upon misleading data…Read More

Biderman’s Daily Edge 2/23/2012: Finding Success While World Economies Shrink

Feb
23

A common question out there is how to be a successful long term investor in a world where the financial markets are being manipulated by the US Federal Reserve, the European and Japanese central banks; the major global economies are shrinking and there is a massive wealth transfer to the emerging world… Read More

Biderman’s Daily Edge 2/22/2012: Housing Experiencing Second Annual False Dawn

Feb
23

Homebuilding stocks have skyrocketed so far this year. The Home Builder ETF (XHB) is up 16%, and KB Home (KBH), is up 76% and Ryland Group (RYL) is also outperforming, up 23%. Almost all the homebuilders are up more than the 8% gain for S&P 500. The melt-up in housing-related stocks is similar to what occurred at the same time a year ago. Back then, investors widely believed the US economy was coming back and therefore the housing market was bottoming. Then reality hit and real estate stock prices were knocked sharply lower…Read More

Biderman’s Daily Edge 2/21/2012: Buyers of Worthless Debt Keep Government Afloat

Feb
21

Greece was bailed out yesterday. Or so the headlines blare. In reality all that will be happening at some point in the near future is that the European Governments will give Greece enough money to pay back the European banks a portion of the money Greece owes those banks. In exchange Greece agrees to retrench its public sector and raise more money from everyone else. As if that will ever happen… Read More

Why the U.S. Economy Could Go Haywire

Feb
21

Dan DorfmanDorfman And Dollars
Dan Dorfman follows the dollars and sense of the markets 

Americans participating in a recent Gallup poll showed the highest level of confidence in an economic recovery in a year. Sounds great, but you can’t ignore the nearly 13 million unemployed, the 46 million people on food stamps and the roughly 29% of the country’s homeowners whose mortgages are under water. They would find it hard to subscribe to the poll’s sunny conclusion. On the other hand, there’s no getting away from a bevy of seemingly increasingly favorable economic data, which, more recently, includes falling weekly jobless claims, four consecutive monthly gains in the leading economic indicators, somewhat perkier retail sales and a pickup in housing starts and business permits. Pounding home this cheerful view is the media’s growing drumbeat of increased economic vigor…Read More

Posted by  
0 Comments

Global Bettors on a Rick Kick, While Giving Ron and Newt the Boot – But Mitt Still It

Feb
17

By Dan Dorfman

Dan DorfmanDorfman And Dollars
Dan Dorfman follows the dollars and sense of the markets 

If someone bigger and stronger than you repeatedly punches you in the face, bloodies your nose and keeps knocking you to the ground, maybe it’s best to stop fighting, write it off as a losing battle, and go away to live and fight another day.

This same, sound strategy might well apply to the bitter presidential race in which two lagging White House candidates, Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul, have had their political noses repeatedly bloodied. Yet, each is vowing to stay in the race until the very end… Read More

Posted by  
0 Comments

Biderman’s Daily Edge 2/16/2012: Elevator Shaft Market in the Making

Feb
16

At last night’s Golden State Warrior game, my buddy remarked that to him this stock market looks exactly like the elevator shaft market as in October 1987 the stock market dropped 25% in two days. The more I think about that image of an elevator shaft market, the more worried I become… Read More

Schnapp’s Macro Musings 2/15/2012: TrimTabs Revises January 2012 Jobs Estimate

Feb
16

We have discovered a likely source of error in our employment model that would help explain some of the big differences between our jobs estimates based on withholding taxes and the jobs estimate from the BLS and ADP. Recall that the BLS reported that the U.S. economy created a surprising 243,000 jobs in January. In addition, ADP reported 170,000 new jobs. Both of these estimates are far higher than our January jobs estimate of only 45,000… Read More

Charles BidermanCharles Biderman is the Chairman of TrimTabs Investment Research and Portfolio Manager of the TrimTabs Float Shrink ETF (TTFS)

Archives