The secret of my success, in my opinion, has been my ability to accurately describe parts of the market and economy exactly the way they are and exactly the way they are not. I say power to make change starts with being grounded in what is actually happening right now. Not knowing what is really so and just guessing will make any existing problem much worse. If certainty creates power, uncertainty destroys power. Read More
The stock market continues to move upward. The market value of all US stocks is $22 trillion, a whopping $13 trillion increase from the March 2009 low and roughly equal to the all-time peak reached in October 2007. The more the stock market has gone up the more investors, economists and financial commentators, all firmly believe that the U.S. economy is on the verge of rapid growth. Read More
The Bureau of Labor Statistics guessed that 236,000 jobs were added in February and everybody applauded. Yay, or should we say, “boo.” What most everyone missed is that even the BLS admits in a footnote to its February jobs press release that historically its initial number can be revised as much as 90 percent. A 90 percent revision to me means that the February 230,000 job number is meaningless. Read More
Rebuilding after Hurricane Sandy Likely Gives Economy Temporary Boost
Sausalito, CA — December 6, 2012 — TrimTabs Investment Research estimates that the U.S. economy added 202,000 jobs in November, up 44% from 140,000 in October.
TrimTabs’ employment estimates are based on an analysis of daily income tax deposits to the U.S. Treasury from all salaried U.S. employees. They are historically more accurate than the initial estimates from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Read More
Last week the Bureau of Labor Statistics estimated that 171,000 seasonally adjusted jobs were added in October. That initial estimate was based upon a survey of several hundred thousand mostly large businesses and virtually all government employers, and then is seasonally adjusted. Read More
BLS Revises August Estimate Up 100%, to 192,000, Nearly Identical to TrimTabs’ Original Tax Based Estimate of 185,000.
TrimTabs Says Economy Adds 140,000 Jobs in October, While BLS Reports Gain of 171,000.
TrimTabs’ Real-Time Data Says Economic Growth Slows in October, While BLS Reports Acceleration
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) revised their preliminary August employment estimate up 100%, from their preliminary estimate of 96,000 new jobs, to 192,000. The BLS’ revised estimate is nearly identical to TrimTabs original estimate of 185,000. In addition, the BLS revised their September employment estimate up 25%, from their preliminary estimate of 114,000 new jobs, to 142,000. The BLS’ revised estimate is closer to TrimTabs’ original September estimate of 210,000. We expect the BLS to revise its September employment estimate up again in November. Read More
TrimTabs Says BLS Employment Estimates Lag Real-Time Economic Data
Sausalito, CA — October 31, 2012 — TrimTabs Investment Research estimates the U.S. economy added 140,000 jobs in October, down from its estimates of 210,000 new jobs in September and 185,000 jobs in August. Meanwhile, TrimTabs expects the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) to report that job growth improved in October compared to its estimate of 114,000 new jobs created in September. Read More
TrimTabs Says Hefty Upward Revisions to BLS’ September Jobs Data Likely
Sausalito, CA – October 5, 2012 – TrimTabs Investment Research said today that the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) hefty upward revision of its August job growth estimate proves that the BLS missed the important acceleration in job growth this summer because it relies on incomplete surveys that are frequently revised. Read More
Flawed BLS Establishment Survey Misses Acceleration in Employment
Sausalito, CA – October 3, 2012 — TrimTabs Investment Research estimates the U.S. economy added 210,000 jobs in September, a 14% increase from its estimate of 185,000 new jobs in August and an 83% increase from its estimate of 115,000 jobs in July. TrimTabs believes the recent acceleration in job growth is due to an improvement in interest rate sensitive sectors such as housing, mortgage refinancing, and automotive, but is unlikely to last past the end of the year. Read More
Mr. Charles Biderman is an associated person of Trim Tabs Asset Management, LLC, an SEC-registered investment adviser. All opinions expressed by Mr. Biderman on this website are solely those of Mr. Biderman and do not reflect the opinions of Trim Tabs Asset Management, LLC, Trim Tabs Investment Research, Inc., their affiliates (collectively, “Trim Tabs”), or any other associated persons of Trim Tabs. No part of Mr. Biderman’s compensation from Trim Tabs is related to opinions which he expresses on this website, elsewhere on the internet, or in any other medium.
You should not treat any opinion expressed by Mr. Biderman as a recommendation to make an investment in any company discussed or cited in any of his postings. Mr. Biderman’s opinions are based upon information he considers credible, but which does not constitute research by Trim Tabs. Neither Mr. Biderman nor Trim Tabs warrants the completeness or accuracy of the information upon which Mr. Biderman’s opinions are based.