The secret of my success, in my opinion, has been my ability to accurately describe parts of the market and economy exactly the way they are and exactly the way they are not. I say power to make change starts with being grounded in what is actually happening right now. Not knowing what is really so and just guessing will make any existing problem much worse. If certainty creates power, uncertainty destroys power. Read More
Sausalito, CA — June 5, 2013 — TrimTabs Investment Research estimates that the U.S. economy added 135,000 jobs in May, up from 67,000 jobs in April.
“Employment growth is stuck in low gear,” said David Santschi, Chief Executive Officer of TrimTabs. “The economy has added an average of 121,000 jobs per month this year, which by itself is not enough to reduce unemployment.” Read More
The Bureau of Labor Statistics guessed that 236,000 jobs were added in February and everybody applauded. Yay, or should we say, “boo.” What most everyone missed is that even the BLS admits in a footnote to its February jobs press release that historically its initial number can be revised as much as 90 percent. A 90 percent revision to me means that the February 230,000 job number is meaningless. Read More
Tax Deposits Indicate Last Month’s Employment Growth Slowest since June 2012
Sausalito, CA — March 6, 2013 — TrimTabs Investment Research estimates that the U.S. economy added 100,000 jobs in February, down from 135,000-155,000 jobs in January.
“Employment growth has gotten off to a slow start this year,” said David Santschi, Chief Executive Officer of TrimTabs. “Real-time tax data indicates that employment growth last month was the slowest since June 2012.” Read More
Rebuilding after Hurricane Sandy Likely Gives Economy Temporary Boost
Sausalito, CA — December 6, 2012 — TrimTabs Investment Research estimates that the U.S. economy added 202,000 jobs in November, up 44% from 140,000 in October.
TrimTabs’ employment estimates are based on an analysis of daily income tax deposits to the U.S. Treasury from all salaried U.S. employees. They are historically more accurate than the initial estimates from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Read More
Last week the Bureau of Labor Statistics estimated that 171,000 seasonally adjusted jobs were added in October. That initial estimate was based upon a survey of several hundred thousand mostly large businesses and virtually all government employers, and then is seasonally adjusted. Read More
Today we are going to talk about jobs. Occasionally, we get to pat ourselves on the back. Does anybody recall the big difference between our employment estimates and the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ estimates in August and September? More importantly, did you check out the revisions to the BLS employment data? That’s what we are going to talk about today. Then we will talk about why the BLS’ October estimate is wrong again!
BLS Revises August Estimate Up 100%, to 192,000, Nearly Identical to TrimTabs’ Original Tax Based Estimate of 185,000.
TrimTabs Says Economy Adds 140,000 Jobs in October, While BLS Reports Gain of 171,000.
TrimTabs’ Real-Time Data Says Economic Growth Slows in October, While BLS Reports Acceleration
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) revised their preliminary August employment estimate up 100%, from their preliminary estimate of 96,000 new jobs, to 192,000. The BLS’ revised estimate is nearly identical to TrimTabs original estimate of 185,000. In addition, the BLS revised their September employment estimate up 25%, from their preliminary estimate of 114,000 new jobs, to 142,000. The BLS’ revised estimate is closer to TrimTabs’ original September estimate of 210,000. We expect the BLS to revise its September employment estimate up again in November. Read More
TrimTabs Says BLS Employment Estimates Lag Real-Time Economic Data
Sausalito, CA — October 31, 2012 — TrimTabs Investment Research estimates the U.S. economy added 140,000 jobs in October, down from its estimates of 210,000 new jobs in September and 185,000 jobs in August. Meanwhile, TrimTabs expects the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) to report that job growth improved in October compared to its estimate of 114,000 new jobs created in September. Read More