Posts Tagged ‘ Double Dip 2011 ’
By Dan Dorfman
“Illusion is a dangerous thing,” wrote Ralph Waldo Emerson.
The nation’s ebullient stock players might well want to give that quote some meaningful thought since they unknowingly could be afflicted with an equally dangerous dose of economic illusion, some economy watchers suggest.
That’s a reference to the Street’s swelling belief that U.S. economy is all but officially out of the woods, that its increasing vigor is a harbinger of rosier economic times ahead, likely accompanied by a final bottoming of the beaten-up job and housing markets in the not-too-distant future… Read More
The S&P 500 popped 1.6% today. The media will come up with logical reasons as to why. But not one of them will report the real reason. The real reason is based upon supply and demand.
Today, April 17 is tax day. Over $140 billion in tax payments are being sent to the US Treasury this month and the due date is today.
The market sells of early in April in years when the market start strongly, like this year. Why? Again supply and demand…Read More
Ignorance is bliss, particularly when it comes to US government economic data. The latest bad joke occurred this morning when the US Census Bureau said retail sales rose 0.8% in March.
And the financial press reported that 0.8% sales increase as gospel showing once again how totally ignorant the media is when it comes to reporting economic numbers put out by the US government. The AP headline was that US retail sales in March rose 0.8%, helped by job gains. The Wall Street Journal online site reported not only that U.S. retail sales rose 0.8% in March, but also that Americans spent more on autos…Read More
By Dan Dorfman
Last week, we saw another one of those periodic outbursts of acquisition fever, with both Microsoft and Facebook announcing billion-dollar deals. Even more relevant to sports fans is the question of whether that fever could soon spread to our national pastime, as well, notably to the storied New York Yankees, which, according to an estimate from one financial big hitter, could command a $3-$4 billion price tag.
That’s the enticing speculation making the rounds among some big-time financial players in sports circles following the recent blockbuster $2 billion sale of the Los Angeles Dodgers to a group, including former basketball star Magic Johnson and film producer Peter Gruber, the man behind “Rain Man.” That purchase price, which will include the use of funds from insurance companies, is widely perceived as out of touch with economic reality and strictly an ego trip for rich guys , with some baseball watchers of the opinion that the buyers may have overpaid by as much as $500 million…Read More
Today I am reaffirming my start of 2012 recommendation to go long the gold ETF, GLD and short the Euro ETF, FXE. After a third of the way through 2012, GLD is up about 6%, the Euro is virtually unchanged and US stocks are up 9% as this is being recorded. I still recommend dollar cost averaging both GLD and at the same time shorting the FXE. I have been predicting that US stocks eventually will sell off, but while that might have already started, I really think that the big sell off will not start until after April…Read More
By Dan Dorfman
It happens to every market watcher. They make some outrageous forecast about the direction of stock prices and wind up looking like a buffoon as their prediction turns out to be dead wrong. I speak from experience because I’ve goofed more than I’d like to admit. In that context, this week’s dunce cap for market forecasting goes to Lou Dobbs, an anchor at the Fox Business Network.
Last Thursday, Dobbs took Fox viewers on a trip to cloud nine when he bellowed his blissfully happy message that every investor loves to hear–namely, any future market losses would be contained. The clear inference was we can say goodbye to those large or nasty triple-digit losses; from now on, it’s just small declines in the future…Read More
US taxpayers in April 2011 sent $140 billion to the US Treasury. While I have no idea how much taxes will be paid this April, I am pretty sure that billions of dollars in stocks still will be sold to pay taxes. That should keep pressure on stock prices the rest of this week, everything else being equal.
The biggest story today is that the financial markets were shocked, shocked that Friday’s jobs number was disappointing. After all, the Bureau of Labor Statistic had been guessing that an average of 250,000 new jobs were created each month, after seasonal adjustments, from December to February. Over that same time frame there appeared to be an improving trend in weekly new unemployment claims…Read More