Today I am reaffirming my start of 2012 recommendation to go long the gold ETF, GLD and short the Euro ETF, FXE. After a third of the way through 2012, GLD is up about 6%, the Euro is virtually unchanged and US stocks are up 9% as this is being recorded. I still recommend dollar cost averaging both GLD and at the same time shorting the FXE. I have been predicting that US stocks eventually will sell off, but while that might have already started, I really think that the big sell off will not start until after April…Read More
It happens to every market watcher. They make some outrageous forecast about the direction of stock prices and wind up looking like a buffoon as their prediction turns out to be dead wrong. I speak from experience because I’ve goofed more than I’d like to admit. In that context, this week’s dunce cap for market forecasting goes to Lou Dobbs, an anchor at the Fox Business Network.
Last Thursday, Dobbs took Fox viewers on a trip to cloud nine when he bellowed his blissfully happy message that every investor loves to hear–namely, any future market losses would be contained. The clear inference was we can say goodbye to those large or nasty triple-digit losses; from now on, it’s just small declines in the future…Read More
US taxpayers in April 2011 sent $140 billion to the US Treasury. While I have no idea how much taxes will be paid this April, I am pretty sure that billions of dollars in stocks still will be sold to pay taxes. That should keep pressure on stock prices the rest of this week, everything else being equal.
The biggest story today is that the financial markets were shocked, shocked that Friday’s jobs number was disappointing. After all, the Bureau of Labor Statistic had been guessing that an average of 250,000 new jobs were created each month, after seasonal adjustments, from December to February. Over that same time frame there appeared to be an improving trend in weekly new unemployment claims…Read More
It never fails. Stock market rallies always run out of steam. So you don’t need an Einstein IQ to recognize that at some point–please don’t ask me when–the current rally will also fizzle and prices of lots of overbought equities will slide, leading to a speedy erosion of the profits generated during the S&P 500′s 29% rise over the past six months. In fact, the market’s down action in recent days could be a hint that such a process may already be evolving. So for sure, you want to avoid stocks that can butcher you in a falling market… Read More
Sausalito, CA – April 4, 2012. TrimTabs Investment Research estimates the U.S. economy added 187,000 jobs in March. In the past three months, TrimTabs says, employment growth has averaged 172,000. Meanwhile, the consensus view is that the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will report 200,000 new jobs on Friday for a three-month average of about 245,000.
TrimTabs’ employment estimates are based on an analysis of daily income tax deposits to the U.S. Treasury from all salaried U.S. employees. They are historically more accurate than initial estimates from the BLS…Read More
The Unites States now has the highest corporate income tax globally. Congratulations. Corporate income tax is the worst, most capital and value destroying tax of all types of taxation. And we are the leaders.
To understand why corporate income tax destroys capital over the long term; you need to first to understand that all there is in a corporation are people; nothing other then people managing and working at growing a business. A corporation is just the name of a group of people working together to provide goods and services for sale. This might be a shock to some, but all corporate employees pay income taxes on whatever they make. Similarly shareholders pay taxes on the income they get from a business via distributions…Read More
April and May were bipolar months for stocks each of the past two years. And I expect the same bipolar behavior this coming April and May. April historically is a strong month for stocks and should be as well this year. The main reason is April is the second biggest month for inflows into stocks after January. Why? Read More