A key belief of mine is that inherent in the nature of government is that governments are not capable of effectively providing services. And by effectively, I mean in terms of dollars and hours. Yet, the biggest of the Big Lies, and one apparently believed by most Americans, is that government can effectively provide services. Read More
The idiocy in Washington on both sides is almost too tough to watch. First off, there is no government shutdown. Yes, about 500,000 government workers are on furlough and not getting paid right now. But over 20 million direct and indirect government workers are still on the job and getting paid! So how can a 2.5 percent, yes 2.5 percent, temporary reduction in workforce be called a shutdown? Read More
Sausalito, CA — June 5, 2013 — TrimTabs Investment Research estimates that the U.S. economy added 135,000 jobs in May, up from 67,000 jobs in April.
“Employment growth is stuck in low gear,” said David Santschi, Chief Executive Officer of TrimTabs. “The economy has added an average of 121,000 jobs per month this year, which by itself is not enough to reduce unemployment.” Read More
The Bureau of Labor Statistics guessed that 236,000 jobs were added in February and everybody applauded. Yay, or should we say, “boo.” What most everyone missed is that even the BLS admits in a footnote to its February jobs press release that historically its initial number can be revised as much as 90 percent. A 90 percent revision to me means that the February 230,000 job number is meaningless. Read More
Tax Deposits Indicate Last Month’s Employment Growth Slowest since June 2012
Sausalito, CA — March 6, 2013 — TrimTabs Investment Research estimates that the U.S. economy added 100,000 jobs in February, down from 135,000-155,000 jobs in January.
“Employment growth has gotten off to a slow start this year,” said David Santschi, Chief Executive Officer of TrimTabs. “Real-time tax data indicates that employment growth last month was the slowest since June 2012.” Read More
We estimate based on real-time income tax withholdings that the U.S. economy added 135,000 to 155,000 jobs in January, down slightly from 145,000 to 165,000 jobs in December.
For the second consecutive month, we are citing a range rather than a single figure because the impact of year-end bonuses makes it much tougher than usual to estimate employment change. Many employers shifted bonuses that normally would be paid in January and February into December due to tax increases that took effect on January 1. According to our favorite official Washington economist, some of the withholdings on bonuses paid out by December 31 were transmitted to the Treasury as late as the middle of January, so year-over-year comparisons in January are as skewed as they were in December. We adjusted the raw withholdings data to account for a significant degree of bonus shifting. Read More
Bonus Shifting Makes Estimating Employment Growth More Difficult Than Usual
Sausalito, CA — January 2, 2013 — TrimTabs Investment Research estimates that the U.S. economy added 145,000-165,000 jobs in December, down from 202,000 jobs in November.
TrimTabs’ employment estimates are based on an analysis of daily income tax deposits to the U.S. Treasury from all salaried U.S. employees. They are historically more accurate than the initial estimates from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Read More