April income tax payments sent in by individuals are surging, up by more than $50 billion over April 2012 and higher by $63 billion year to date. That means to me that year end 2012 income from asset sales and bonuses had to have spiked by around $300 billion to generate that $63 billion in bigger tax payments. I know, this is a lot of numbers and some of you should read the transcript instead of this video. To go back, in other words anticipation of this year’s higher taxes created a one time 10 percent pop in income over those few months the $300 billion became income! Read More
As we start the last week of March, seasonal factors are likely to create a very volatile stock market through April, taking investors on a rollercoaster ride. That’s despite the two underlying bullish realities: The Fed is pumping up stocks by creating $4 billion of fake money every day. Meanwhile, companies are shrinking the float of shares by at about $2 billion every day. Read More
Hit the play button on commentary from bullish Wall Street portfolio managers and their major explanation for why stocks will head higher is that the U.S. economy is obviously recovering. I agree that stock prices are more likely than not to keep rising over the next few months. But the gain has nothing to due with the U.S. economy and everything to do with the Federal Reserve creating $1 trillion of new money annually on the top of the U.S. government creating $900 billion out of thin air this year. Read More
The Bureau of Labor Statistics guessed that 236,000 jobs were added in February and everybody applauded. Yay, or should we say, “boo.” What most everyone missed is that even the BLS admits in a footnote to its February jobs press release that historically its initial number can be revised as much as 90 percent. A 90 percent revision to me means that the February 230,000 job number is meaningless. Read More
Stocks are approaching all-time highs. At the same wages and salaries, after taxes and inflation, are declining year over year. How can stocks keep going up without the economy leading the way or even following behind? Simple. It is a case of supply and demand in the stock market. Read More
In a two-part conversation, TrimTabs’ Charles Biderman and Jim Bianco discuss a variety of topics, including the sequester’s over-blown impact and a risk-less stock market created by the government’s never ending quantitative easing. Click Here to see the videos’ talking points.
Welcome to the new recession. TrimTabs tracking of real-time wages and salaries shows that the United States has entered into a recession this year. I had been predicting a slowdown after the big bump in December incomes due to the hike in taxes. It has taken a while for us to get a handle on income this year given all the changes in tax rates. But now enough time has passed that I can say I was right. The U.S. economy has slowed enough to enter into recession. Read More