The US stock market seems to me very similar to the market in January 2000. Starting in mid 1999 I became convinced the market had to crash, but was getting extremely frustrated. I am attaching at the end of the script accompanying this video on our trimtabs.com/blog site what I wrote in the December 27, 1999 issue of what was then called Liquidity TrimTabs. Read More
Hedge Fund Industry Outperforms S&P 500 Index for Second Month in a Row
New York, NY — January 8, 2013 — BarclayHedge and TrimTabs Investment Research reported today that the hedge fund industry took in a net $4.7 billion (0.3% of assets) in November, reversing a $10.3 billion outflow in October. The results are based on data from 2,935 funds. Read More
Bubbles are a popular way of describing unsustainable high prices. Stocks and bonds are at bubble levels just the way housing values were before they collapsed in the last decade. Bond prices are as high as they can get, since interest rates are about as low as they can get. As interest rates started going down in 2008 bond prices went up. And as interest rates stay down, the best and safest corporate use of free cash flow is to shrink the overall amount of shares, rather then making anything resembling a risky investment. So more cash and less shares in the hands of the institutions that own 80% of all US stock has meant ever rising stock prices. Read More
Now that we know that income and employment taxes for all workers are going to rise by about $150 billion or so this year, I am fairly confident that wages and salaries are likely to decline in the first quarter of 2013. Read More
This week TrimTabs.com/blog will start carrying a table tracking US pre-tax and after tax income in real time. Our blog site will become the sole web source for US income. I am hoping that after-tax income replaces GDP as the best way of tracking the US economy. The only reason GDP is currently being used is that the US government in its infinite idiocy refuses to use available real-time data on income and instead relies upon a severely flawed methodology. GDP barely tracks 60% of the US economy, misses most of the service sector and is nowhere near real time. Read More
Over the past year since I started doing these videos, I have said many times that I expect the stock market to crash at some point in time, the only question is when. That does not mean I do not own and buy stocks. Yes, while my holdings include gold, inflation protected Treasuries and short positions, I am also long stocks and have been regularly buying. Read More
By Charles Biderman
There are two parts to the fiscal cliff equation. Government spending on services and taxes. Unfortunately almost all the discussion about how to fix the long term problem has been about taxes. Focusing on taxes to raise revenues to provide government services requires making a key assumption that governments can effectively provide services. But what if the real problem is that the US government by its nature is incapable of providing cost effective services? I say that government spending on services are not only cost ineffective but probably harmful to the overall economy. Read More
Hedge Fund Industry’s September Performance Lags S&P 500; Assets Down 25.8% Since Peak
European Funds Gain Most Assets in September; All 8 Global Regions Post Gains
New York, NY — November 13, 2012 — BarclayHedge and TrimTabs Investment Research reported today that the hedge fund industry took in $3.4 billion (0.2% of assets) in September, building on a $7.7 billion inflow in August. Based on data from 3,004 funds, the TrimTabs/BarclayHedge Hedge Fund Flow Report estimated that industry assets stood at $1.8 trillion in September, down 25.8% from the June 2008 peak of $2.4 trillion. Read More
By Charles Biderman
I officially declare that the Bernanke Put is dead and buried. Nobody even talks about it anymore. It has been a while since someone on CNBC said there is very little risk in being long stocks since Ben Bernanke has the stock market’s back. Read More
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