Some of you do not understand how I can be bearish on the markets for the rest of this year yet continue to recommend going long equities. The answer is that there are three time horizons for investors. There is the short term, which to me is the next month or so; the medium term which could be two months to as long as a year, and then there is the long term, which is one year through whenever. Read More
I recently reviewed my videos from earlier this year and noticed that I had devoted a lot of attention to stock market similarities over the past three years. Specifically how stocks peaked in April 2010 and 2011 and then sold off through the summer until the Fed announced another money printing package.
Well, stocks did peak this April, but did not sell off this summer anywhere near as much as they did in 2010 and 2011. Stocks prices did drop 10% starting in May. In early June, however, John Hilsenrath, who closely covers the Fed for the Wall Street Journal touted a potential Fed easing and stocks went up. But stocks sold off in July after the late June Fed Open Market Committee Meeting failed to announce a new easing plan. Both European and US stocks looked to be very vulnerable to a big price declines. Then on July 25 ECB chief Mario Draghi announced his pledge of allegiance to Euro printing. Since then the US stock market has rebounded back up to near the April high. Read More
The TrimTabs Money Blog is pleased to announce the launch of Biderman’s Market Picks, a weekly video newsletter by Charles Biderman. This newsletter is designed to help you maximize long term investment gains while minimizing short term risks.
Each weekly issue of Biderman’s Markets Picks has three parts. The first part covers what Charles is thinking about the stock market. The second part presents Charles’ views on the economy. The third part shows how Charles is investing a $100,000 model portfolio to try to profit from the information in the first two parts.
“Charles Biderman is one of the savviest investors we’ve come across in a very long time. He’s long gold and inflation protected securities as well as being short a number of sectors that he believes will be the next crash victims. We asked him frankly if there was a market in the world that was not rigged and was functioning as it was intended. His answer was an unhesitating and resounding NO! The unabated flow of free money given out to the favored Too Big To Fails and other financial institutions has completely corrupted the financial system. It’s no longer a place where capital gets allocated and growing businesses get needed financing. Which is why companies use the free money to buy back their stock instead of expansion. And until the government lets it all fail, nothing can change.”
Yesterday, August 7, a participant on the Zero Hedge General Discussion Forum asked: “What say Biderman since he went all in bearish on the S&P sub 1340 on July 24? The market has ripped in his face. Inquiring minds would like to know.”
The short answer is I remain bearish, but I am not losing very much money for myself and clients while waiting for, what I see is an inevitable stock market crash. Yes, I have been bearish and the stock market has gone up. We first told our clients we were turning 100% bearish on July 19 when the S&P 500 closed at 1376. Sorry, but we told paying clients first, then waited until July 24 before telling you all for free. Read More
Hedge Fund Industry’s June Performance Lag S&P 500; Assets Down 29.5% Since 2008 Peak
Equity-Based Funds Are Notably Low Performers Over Past 12 Months
New York, NY — August 8, 2012 — BarclayHedge and TrimTabs Investment Research reported today that the hedge fund industry redeemed $4.9 billion (0.3% of assets) in June, compared with inflows of $1.1 billion in May. Based on data from 3,012 funds, the TrimTabs/BarclayHedge Hedge Fund Flow Report estimated that industry assets were $1.71 trillion in June, down 1.3% from $1.73 trillion in May and down 29.5% from their peak of $2.4 trillion in June 2008. Read More
Jim Bianco of Bianco Research spoke with TrimTabs’ Charles Biderman in a two-part conversation about what’s happening in Europe, how it can effect the United States economy and what it all means for the upcoming Presidential Election.
Sausalito, CA – August 1, 2012. TrimTabs Investment Research estimates the U.S. economy added 115,000 jobs in July, a 53% increase from its estimate of 75,000 new jobs in June, but down 7.3% from its estimate of 124,000 jobs in May. Meanwhile, the consensus view is that the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will report July job growth of 90,000 on Friday. Read More.
TrimTabs’ Leon Mirochnik went on the Business News Network Tuesday morning to discuss why share buybacks by US companies could increase over the next year, and whether or not they are a prominent factor in deciding which stocks to purchase going forward.