Now that Tax Day is behind us, stocks should go up, for at least the next couple of weeks for three reasons. First and most important the Fed key strokes $4 billion of phony money into existence each and every trading day. Second, companies keep buying back shares. Third, billions of tax oriented cash flows into stocks after April 15 each year. Combine these three factors and what you get is moremoney chasing fewer shares. In other words, supply and demand says stock prices are going higher for now. Read More
There’s been a lot of talk about the Federal Reserve rigging the stock market. If you’ve been wondering, as I have, how it is being done, here’s some terrific insight from our own David Santschi. David wrote in this week’s TrimTabs Weekly Liquidity Review, “The Fed is exchanging about $4 billion in newly created money every business day for various types of bonds. All else being equal, the Fed’s bond buying puts more money in investors’ hands to buy other assets, including stocks.” Read More
We estimate based on real-time income tax withholdings that the U.S. economy added 135,000 to 155,000 jobs in January, down slightly from 145,000 to 165,000 jobs in December.
For the second consecutive month, we are citing a range rather than a single figure because the impact of year-end bonuses makes it much tougher than usual to estimate employment change. Many employers shifted bonuses that normally would be paid in January and February into December due to tax increases that took effect on January 1. According to our favorite official Washington economist, some of the withholdings on bonuses paid out by December 31 were transmitted to the Treasury as late as the middle of January, so year-over-year comparisons in January are as skewed as they were in December. We adjusted the raw withholdings data to account for a significant degree of bonus shifting. Read More