We estimate based on real-time income tax withholdings that the U.S. economy added 135,000 to 155,000 jobs in January, down slightly from 145,000 to 165,000 jobs in December.
For the second consecutive month, we are citing a range rather than a single figure because the impact of year-end bonuses makes it much tougher than usual to estimate employment change. Many employers shifted bonuses that normally would be paid in January and February into December due to tax increases that took effect on January 1. According to our favorite official Washington economist, some of the withholdings on bonuses paid out by December 31 were transmitted to the Treasury as late as the middle of January, so year-over-year comparisons in January are as skewed as they were in December. We adjusted the raw withholdings data to account for a significant degree of bonus shifting. Read More
As we start the second half of January, this is a particularly good time to check out what real time data on flows and income has been telling us about the first half of this month. What has caught the attention of the media and markets is that a huge amount of money has gone into stocks since the beginning of the new year. TrimTabs Investment Research says that an amazing $39 billion has been invested in US and Global equity mutual as well exchange traded funds during the first ten trading days of January.
This week TrimTabs.com/blog will start carrying a table tracking US pre-tax and after tax income in real time. Our blog site will become the sole web source for US income. I am hoping that after-tax income replaces GDP as the best way of tracking the US economy. The only reason GDP is currently being used is that the US government in its infinite idiocy refuses to use available real-time data on income and instead relies upon a severely flawed methodology. GDP barely tracks 60% of the US economy, misses most of the service sector and is nowhere near real time. Read More
Over the past year since I started doing these videos, I have said many times that I expect the stock market to crash at some point in time, the only question is when. That does not mean I do not own and buy stocks. Yes, while my holdings include gold, inflation protected Treasuries and short positions, I am also long stocks and have been regularly buying. Read More
Unless Barack Obama dramatically changes, I predict by the end of his second four year term he will have earned the legacy of being the worst fiscal president ever. Why? The US will be bankrupt after another four years of the same Obama we had for the past four. Read More
TrimTabs Says BLS Employment Estimates Lag Real-Time Economic Data
Sausalito, CA — October 31, 2012 — TrimTabs Investment Research estimates the U.S. economy added 140,000 jobs in October, down from its estimates of 210,000 new jobs in September and 185,000 jobs in August. Meanwhile, TrimTabs expects the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) to report that job growth improved in October compared to its estimate of 114,000 new jobs created in September. Read More
Today, my overall market strategy is to not lose money while waiting for the stock market to plunge. I have been providing unique investment research to professional investors since 1990 and what is more I am proud of my results. Originally a short seller, I started Liquidity TrimTabs in 1995 when I realized my shorts were no longer working because lots of corporate buying plus huge mutual fund inflows had been booming stock prices. Then at the end of 1999 I said stocks had to crash because there was not enough cash to buy all the new shares from IPOs and option conversions that would come to market in 2000. I was a few months early. In the summer of 2002 we called the ultimate market and economic bottom. From 2004 through October 2007 we were almost continuously bullish. Read More